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From sand to the stars (6 Dec 2007)

 
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Bruce Simpson
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Joined: 02 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2007 9:46 am    Post subject: From sand to the stars (6 Dec 2007) Reply with quote

This column is archived at: http://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2007/1206.shtml

Happy 60th birthday Mr transistor.

So what will the next 60 years bring?

Will we finally make the breakthrough that'll be required to turn the promise of ultra-powerful quantum computers a reality?

And if we do manage to make practical quantum computers, just what will we do with them?

With the almost exponential growth of technology, will we have all the computing power we could ever need this century -- or will the laws of physics ankle-tap Moore's law and slow us down?

Has your computer got more bits of memory than there are people on the face of the earth?

I wonder how many bits of memory there are in the entire world Smile
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thrashcardiom



Joined: 24 Jan 2005
Posts: 525

PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2007 10:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This amuses me:

Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2007 00:14:10 -0000
From: Rob Slade <rMslade@private>
Subject: Quantum Security

Quantum computing is a field of research based upon the notion of quantum entities known as qubits. Unlike the classical computer bit, which can exist in either a one or zero state, qubits can exists in a superposition of both states simultaneously, and possibly more. This may (or may not) enable us to create new computer architectures which can (or can't) provide new computing capabilities.

The ability for a qubit to hold both one and zero states simultaneously implies that quantum computer architectures will be able to compute all possible|each possible|every possible|all feasible|each feasible|every feasible|all viable|each viable|every viable|all conceivable|each conceivable|every conceivable|all imaginable|each imaginable|every imaginable value for a given problem at once (or not).

Given this new and powerful computer architecture, we may (or may not) be able to perform computations of NP-complete, non-convergent, or least path problems in less than exponential times. This has significant implications for risk analysis and management. Possibly the greatest risk is in pursuing
a technology which may never produce a real effect. However, on February 13th of this year, a Canadian company demonstrated a device which is the largest quantum computer built to date (or not).

The superposition factor of computing all possible values holds promise in terms of encryption, but the relation to encryption does not end there.

Using the quantum phenomenon of entanglement, the sender can determine whether or not a third party is reading transmissions. (I wonder if anyone is reading this?) Unfortunately, the concepts of quantum encryption, and quantum computing, although they use different technologies (or not), are entangled in the public mind.

I have, as it happens, been working on a paper (for the next ISMH) on the security implications of quantum computing. At the moment, the paper is in a superposition state of being written and not written. (Until an observer looks at it, have I really written the paper?)

Returning to the topic of risk management, quantum devices may be able to compute, via an assessment of the lowest energy state, the optimum configu...

Oh, I'm too tired to finish this off ...
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johnthetech



Joined: 14 Jul 2006
Posts: 485
Location: Rosebank Road Avondale

PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2007 10:36 am    Post subject: Onwards and Upwards Reply with quote

thrashcardiom wrote:
This amuses me:
Oh, I'm too tired to finish this off ...

This sounds like poetry to me. Wide open technology for the future.
We have cars such as the Mercedes S Series which almost drive themselves based on silicon structures using "1"s and "0"s.
We have incredible entertainment systems with 5.1 and 7.1 in Dolby or DTS with HD pictures of incredible clarity.
Right down to radio controlled toys for less that $20.00
Mobile phones with cameras and iPods and portable DVD players are all cheaply available now.
Who knows what we will be buying (or not) in 2027?
Remember when we heard the BBC on shortwave with noise and phasing?
Barely intelligible, yet now we have clear digital TV coming from a satellite in space.
I remember my first digital watch. Push a button and these tiny seven segment LEDs lit up.
My head is spinning ...
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techy



Joined: 15 Feb 2005
Posts: 422

PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2007 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Want to wash the clothes? If yours is one of the newer "smarter" machines, it'll work out how much water to use, how long to wash, rinse, spin and how may times to repeat the process in order to achieve a totally satisfactory result.

Want to record a programme on the VCR? Just whack a G-code in and the machine will work out for itself what time, what channel, and how long to record for.

And just what makes all this fancy stuff so simple?

Hmmm, having worked for F&P once I can tell you most of the "wash programmes" are exactly the same.

Yep, hardware is marvellous. Pity the software isn't as neat.
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Peter



Joined: 22 Aug 2006
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Location: Dunedin

PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2007 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

techy wrote:
Hmmm, having worked for F&P once I can tell you most of the "wash programmes" are exactly the same.

Hmmm, having worked for F&P albeit 20 years ago I can tell you that even the old 400s with mechanical timers had variable wash possibilities. And my current Bosch definitely has variable programs.
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Online Gamer



Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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Location: Auckland, NZ

PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2007 12:22 pm    Post subject: Re: From sand to the stars (6 Dec 2007) Reply with quote

Bruce Simpson wrote:
Apart from the obvious (ultra-secure encryption) what would we actually use a quantum supercomputer for?


Well, I'm sure the worlds military would love a new more efficient way to kill each other. roll eyes

Great thing a new massive leap in technology, would be nice to have a leap in intelligence at the same time on how to use it.

Cheers
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Jman



Joined: 05 Jul 2006
Posts: 395

PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2007 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
what would we actually use a quantum supercomputer for?


The same thing that all advances in processing power is used for : Better video games Cheesy Grin
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gordy



Joined: 10 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2007 3:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

seen this http://www.nec.co.jp/press/en/0607/1401.html?

Not amazing but the first sign that FLASH may be going the way of the dinosaur. No doubt these 1MB parts will be expensive but so was FLASH when EEPROMs were king.
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linw



Joined: 03 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2007 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We could make 120 'sentient' robots and put them in parliament. They may not make better decisions, but at least they would be cheaper to run.
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zkarj



Joined: 05 Jan 2005
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Location: Wellington, New Zealand

PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2007 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's quite simple. Once that kind of power, and prediction, is available the human race will destroy itself with its own inventions. Let's hope that interstellar travel comes first so at least some will have a hope of surviving.
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Bruce Simpson
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2007 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm actually wondering whether the big advantage of quantum computing won't be so much the extra power (although that's nice) but the massive reduction in size.

Imagine having supercomputer power in your wristwatch or cellphone.

The real problem however, will be the questionable reliability of the results. After all, in the world of quantum physics, there are no certainties, only probabilities Smile
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gordy



Joined: 10 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2007 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bruce Simpson wrote:
Imagine having supercomputer power in your wristwatch or cellphone.


Imagine having it so small it fits inside your brain, right next to the hippocampus. Of course, you'll need some kind of storage device to make it useful but the way things are going we'll soon be getting yottabyte holographic memory.

Ok, so yottabyte is a wee bit off but petabyte/exabyte storage may not be.

How do you feel about being able to remember everything, in details, and link to the web straight from your head?
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Peter



Joined: 22 Aug 2006
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Location: Dunedin

PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2007 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Including a location detector that helps deliver targeted advertising - walk past a pub and it sends a thirsty signal, and is smart enough to flash three stars in front of your eyes if you are in NZ or London, and four stars if you are in Aus.
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gordy



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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2007 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peter wrote:
Including a location detector that helps deliver targeted advertising - walk past a pub and it sends a thirsty signal, and is smart enough to flash three stars in front of your eyes if you are in NZ or London, and four stars if you are in Aus.


Well, I was envisaged the computer having some pretty sophisticated filters and firewalling. The pub would still throw the stuff at you but the filters would prevent it reaching your conscious unless you had instructed it to find a place to drink.

In general, anything that came at your 'interfaces' would be placed in a sandbox so you could inspect it safely before you let it in.

The Commonwealth sagas written by Peter F Hamilton come to mind when I read/hear about this kind of stuff. Great stuff. Rejuvenation in your 70s along with permanent backup and erasure of stuff you don't want to keep in your brain when you emerge from rejuve 18 months later.

Live forever, or until you get bored!
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Peter



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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2007 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What if the cost of rejuvenation is patented, and the only way you can afford it is by having it subsidised on condition that you don't filter any advertising?

Anyway, we can't live forever. Morally. We have a duty to make way for the generations that follow. Eventually.
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gordy



Joined: 10 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2007 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peter wrote:
What if the cost of rejuvenation is patented, and the only way you can afford it is by having it subsidised on condition that you don't filter any advertising?


An interesting point that Hamilton got around by having the EU develop the process for the benefit of humanity in the first place. One wonders how he would change the course of events if the patent-friendly US got there first.

As for the cost. In Hamilton's novels the cost was significant. Instead of saving for a pension, you saved for the rejuve treatment. It took you most of your working life. At which point you got your youth back and came out a newly minted 20 year old. With the hormones to match!

Quote:
Anyway, we can't live forever. Morally. We have a duty to make way for the generations that follow. Eventually.


What if humanity had access to over 80 planets, all earth like to some degree? Would you have to make way for the generations that follow if there is plenty of space for everyone to live?

Personally, I'd give it a good few passes through rejuve before I said "enough's enough".[/quote]
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Peter



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 6:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So you work your butt off saving for a rejuve, then start working your butt off for your next one??
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gordy



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 9:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peter wrote:
So you work your butt off saving for a rejuve, then start working your butt off for your next one??


That is the premise of Hamilton's novels. Of course, some people are very wealthy (i smell a literary device here) so this is easy for them. For most, saving up for rejuve is a big cut out of their salary. So they bitch about it a lot. Only the very poor, however, don't save for it.

It leads to an interesting society. Very stable. Slow growth. And a certain degree of condescension towards 'first lifers'. So instead of being treated like a kid until you mid-twenties, you get it until your mid-forties/fifties.

And your mum/dad, at some stage, gets to be physically younger than you.

Neat ideas.

Still, i like the idea of having more than one life to fit it 'all' in, even if it means being a wage slave for that privilege.

Of course, if I hated my life I could just choose to skip rejuve and head straight for rapture.
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Peter



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If I think this rejuve thing cam in big time nature would have it's way of sorting things out, maybe the human race would self destruct, maybe the earth would get a major rejuve.
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starman



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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Location: Sunny North Cornwall, UK :-)

PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peter wrote:
What if the cost of rejuvenation is patented, and the only way you can afford it is by having it subsidised on condition that you don't filter any advertising?

How can you patent the cost of something? Cost is not an original idea.

gordy wrote:
What if humanity had access to over 80 planets, all earth like to some degree? Would you have to make way for the generations that follow if there is plenty of space for everyone to live?

Once (and, maybe, still) humanity had enough space on this planet. Someone always wants more than they have so the whole 'greed' process begins. Even with 80 (presumably uninhabited until we got there) planets we would eventually breed to (over)fill that space.
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gordy



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

starman wrote:
Once (and, maybe, still) humanity had enough space on this planet. Someone always wants more than they have so the whole 'greed' process begins. Even with 80 (presumably uninhabited until we got there) planets we would eventually breed to (over)fill that space.
It a big galaxy.
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